The Trump administration is proposing excluding undocumented immigrants from the 2030 Census count. Experts say that could have major consequences for California’s population count and congressional representation, given its large immigrant population.
The proposal echoes the first Trump administration’s attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census — an effort that was blocked by the courts.
Matt Barreto with UCLA’s voting rights project worked on research used in that legal fight, which found the question could lead to a significant undercount of Latinos and immigrants.
But Barreto says some immigrant households still left people off their census forms even without the question.
"They didn’t want to put down a name of someone who may not have status," said Barreto. "Had the citizenship question been on there, it would have been massively worse. California would have lost at least two, if not three congressional districts back in 2020 and more federal funding."
Eric McGhee with the Public Policy Institute of California says the administration’s proposed changes would have a disproportionate impact on California because it has the largest immigrant population in the country.
"There’s other states like Texas and Florida that also have large immigrant populations," said McGhee, "but what makes those states different is that they have migration from other states coming into their states as well. We don’t have that. We’re losing people to other states."
McGhee says excluding undocumented immigrants on top of this could lead the state to losing more congressional seats in 2030. The state lost a seat for the first time ever in 2020.