AILSA CHANG, HOST:
This morning, the government released a long overdue report on the job market. It was supposed to come out almost seven weeks ago, but was held up because of the government shutdown. NPR's Scott Horsley has been digging through the report and joins us now to tell us if it was even worth the wait. Hey, Scott.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: (Laughter) Hi, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, now that it has finally arrived, what does it actually show, this report?
HORSLEY: It's actually kind of a mixed picture. Depending on where you look, you could conclude the job market's holding up pretty well, or maybe not. Overall, employers added more jobs in September than forecasters expected - 119,000 - but we will see if that number holds up. You know, updated figures in the report show that hiring in July and August was weaker than initially reported, and economist Sarah House of Wells Fargo warns that could happen with the September numbers as well.
SARAH HOUSE: The headline number for payrolls came in above expectation, so maybe that's the start of some firming in job growth. But I'm interested in seeing where that September hiring looks after, you know, maybe another month or two of revisions.
HORSLEY: And while job gains did seem firm in some industries, like restaurants and health care, factories and warehouses cut workers in September, and the unemployment rate actually inched up a little bit. Overall, the report shows a job market that has some cracks in it, but doesn't look like it's about to crumble.
CHANG: Yeah, but as we said, by now this report is a little outdated - right? - so how much weight should we actually give it?
HORSLEY: Well, not only are the numbers a little stale, they're also pointing in different directions.
CHANG: Yeah.
HORSLEY: And, you know, that's a particular challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has another decision to make on interest rates in about three weeks. The central bank cut borrowing costs at its last two meetings in an effort to prop up the job market. But Fed policymakers are deeply divided about whether to cut rates for a third time in December. The more dovish members of the rate-setting committee - those most worried about the job market - want to keep cutting rates, while the more hawkish policymakers, who worry more about inflation and affordability, think they should hold off. Economist Sarah House says this jobs report is not likely to move the needle much one way or the other.
HOUSE: I don't think it settles the disagreement. If you're a hawk on the committee, you're probably looking more at the job growth numbers. But at the same time, I think there's still signs of slack growing in the overall jobs market.
HORSLEY: The reaction in the stock market today suggests that investors think a December rate cut is a little more likely after the jobs report today than it was before the report came out. But they're not nearly as confident the Fed's going to lower interest rates as they were, say, a month ago.
CHANG: OK. Well, if the jobs report that came out today did not move the needle much, is there any other economic information that would?
HORSLEY: You know, we're not going to learn much more about the job market before the next Fed meeting. Because of the government shutdown, both the October and November job tallies are going to come out late and after that meeting. As for inflation, we don't know when or if we'll get the October price index. Government price checkers, like so many other government workers, were furloughed last month and, you know, they're having to play catch-up.
CHANG: Right. So what do we think is happening with inflation?
HORSLEY: At last check, in September, prices were up 3% from a year ago. Now, that's not nearly as bad as we saw back in 2022, when inflation topped 9%, but it was the biggest annual increase since January. And, you know, inflation has been moving in the wrong direction since President Trump announced those worldwide tariffs back in the spring.
The good news is that even though prices are going up, wages are going up faster. That's been true for more than 2 1/2 years now, and the trend continued in September. So workers' paychecks are stretching further on average, so long as they have a job.
CHANG: That is NPR's Scott Horsley. You too. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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